The surprising upside of shrinking cities—and how digital nomads & retirees can turn it into a softer landing abroad
The world crossed 8 billion people in November 2023. Wild number. But here’s the twist: while some places are bursting at the seams, others are emptying out—entire cities, even whole countries, watching their populations slide. Economists call it population decline (or “population collapse” if you want the headline version): when births drop below the replacement rate (about 2.1 children per woman) and a country starts to gray and shrink.
On paper, that sounds grim. In reality, it’s also an opening. Because when people leave, governments get creative. They roll out the welcome mat—cash to relocate, discounted housing, even €1 (or “one-euro”) homes—to put life back into quiet towns. If you’re a digital nomad hunting for a calm base, or a retiree chasing a safer, cheaper life with real community—this moment might be your best one in decades.
Let’s walk the map, from Eastern Europe to the Alps, from island villages to Japan’s countryside—and yes, we’ll talk about what this means for the U.S., too.
The Short List: Countries Where Populations Are Dropping Fast
“Decline” isn’t a fringe story; it’s happening at the nation-state level. A quick look at a few of the standouts mentioned in my research for this episode:
Bulgaria – Projected to drop by 20%+ by mid-century.
Lithuania – About 20.7% down.
Latvia – Roughly 21% down.
Ukraine – War and emigration have accelerated the slide.
Serbia – A steep ~26.4% drop.
Bosnia & Herzegovina – Around 21.9% down.
Croatia – Near 18% down.
Moldova – Emigration remains the big driver; think ~20% down.
Japan – The outlier on this list (and not in Europe): ~15% projected decline.
The point isn’t doom. It’s opportunity. In a lot of these places, people aren’t just “leaving”; town halls are actively recruiting. Which brings us to…
Show Me the Perks: Where Towns Pay You to Move In
This is the part of the movie where the small town mayor stands up and says, “We’ll fix the school, save the cafe, and bring back the festival.” Except now the script includes cash incentives.
Albinen, Switzerland – A postcard in the Alps offering CHF 25,000 per adult and CHF 10,000 per child if you buy/build a home (minimum CHF 200,000) and commit to 10 years. Translation: no buy-and-ghost.
Ponga, Spain – €3,200 per adult to relocate, plus €3,000 per child born there. Slow living, Spanish sunshine.
Sardinia, Italy – Up to €15,000 toward buying/renovating if you move to a town under 3,000 residents. Beach days included.
Presicce-Acquarica, Italy (Puglia) – Up to €30,000 to buy and fix up a home—at prices that would make Milan blush.
Antikythera, Greece – €500/month for 3 years + land if you’ll brave island life. Remote, ferry-twice-a-week remote. But gorgeous.
Ireland’s coastal islands – Grants up to €84,000 to renovate derelict properties on select islands. Cliffs, sea spray, pub nights.
Gällivare/Strömsund, Sweden (and similar northern municipalities) – Family incentives like 10,000 SEK for enrolling kids to keep local schools alive.
Not every program fits every lifestyle. But if you’ve ever dreamed of a quiet base + real community + low cost of living, take a second look.
The Famous €1 (One-Euro) Homes: What’s Real, What’s Not
If you’ve seen the viral posts, you know the hook: buy an Italian home for €1. It’s legit—but not magic.
How the €1 home schemes actually work:
You buy for €1 (or sometimes €5,000–€20,000 today—demand pushed up prices).
You commit to renovate within about 3 years.
You post a deposit (often €5,000–€10,000) to ensure you follow through.
You cover legal, notary, and permit fees (€3,000–€10,000).
You fund the renovation (€20,000–€100,000+ depending on condition & rules).
Pros: Rock-bottom acquisition price, jaw-dropping settings, potential tax breaks if you make it your primary.
Cons: Historic-preservation rules, variable permit timelines, ongoing maintenance, and distance from major hubs.
If you’re handy, patient, and want your name in the village bakery by week two, this is a dream assignment. If you’re allergic to process, consider a turnkey discounted property instead (Spain, Croatia, rural France still have deals).
Taxes & Cost of Living: The Quiet Superpower
Let’s talk numbers, because living well for less is the whole point.
Italy (select southern regions): A 7% flat tax for retirees relocating to certain municipalities in the south (think Sicily/Calabria/Sardinia).
Portugal: Historically famous for its NHR framework offering 10-year advantages on certain types of foreign income; versions of this approach remain a draw for many.
Greece: A 7% flat tax on foreign pensions for retirees who relocate.
Spain: A digital-nomad-friendly regime that can drop your effective rate in early years (programs evolve; the headline is: they’re courting remote workers).
Quality of life? High. Healthcare? Solid to excellent across much of Europe and a fraction of U.S. prices. Community? Stronger than you think—especially in smaller towns that are actively welcoming newcomers. Add in low day-to-day costs in certain regions (Bulgaria, Romania, parts of rural Italy/Spain), and you’ve got the makings of an enviable lifestyle on a normal budget.
Japan’s Akiya (Vacant Homes): Sushi, Cedar, and Second Chances
Japan’s population has been shrinking for over a decade—800,000 people per year. The visible result: ~8 million vacant homes, known as akiya.
Akiya banks list abandoned houses, some for $500–$5,000, some free.
Renovation subsidies can cover a chunk of costs in certain municipalities.
Property tax reductions sweeten the pot for restoring old homes.
Foreigners can often buy—no need for citizenship.
City incentives exist, too: cash grants/tax breaks to settle in targeted areas.
Day-to-day costs in Japan aren’t the lowest, but housing can be unbelievably cheap if you play the akiya game—and the cultural dividend is off the charts.
What Happens If U.S. Population Starts Falling?
The U.S. could see the beginnings of population decline by 2033. If it happens, expect uneven effects:
Big coastal metros could see softer demand in some districts.
Rural areas may face deeper outflows and more vacancy.
University/amenity hubs (think “jobs + outdoors + culture”) may prove resilient.
The silver tsunami: more large family homes than buyers—price pressure on certain suburbs.
Upside for buyers/investors: lower entry prices, potential public incentives (tax breaks, relocation grants), and—who knows—U.S. “akiya banks” someday.
For nomads and early retirees, a gentle U.S. deflation in housing may finally unlock own-for-less-than-you-rent scenarios in places you actually want to live.
New Zealand: The “Grow Smart” Strategy
Not every country is shrinking; some are just slowing—and getting smart about it. New Zealand is recruiting exactly who it needs:
Skilled Migrant visas with paths to PR.
The Green List: fast-track residency for in-demand roles (healthcare, engineering, IT).
Regional incentives outside the biggest cities to keep small towns vibrant.
It’s not the cheapest place on Earth, but if you value world-class nature, healthcare, and safety, NZ’s targeted door-opener programs are worth a look—especially if you’ve got in-demand skills or want a fresh start in a smaller community.
Rapid Growth Elsewhere: Does More People = More Poverty?
A lot of developing countries are still booming population-wise. Does that automatically mean poorer? Not necessarily.
Why growth happens: limited access to contraception, fewer educational opportunities (especially for girls), cultural preference for large families, child labor on farms, and unreliable healthcare that encourages “insurance” births.
The fork in the road:
Without investment, growth can strain schools, hospitals, and job markets.
With investment—education (especially for girls), family planning, industrialization, infrastructure—you get the demographic dividend: a massive, productive workforce powering growth (think: China, India in earlier phases).
Population numbers alone don’t decide destiny. Policy does.
So…Should You Move?
If you’re a remote worker or retiree, and the idea of quiet streets, walkable towns, low costs, excellent healthcare, and a community that actually wants you sounds good, population decline is your friend. Just go in eyes-open:
Run the math beyond the sticker price (renovations, permits, heating/cooling older homes).
Check the fine print on incentives (residency deadlines, minimum spend, years you must stay).
Think visas (retirement, nomad, partner, investment—there’s usually a match).
Test drive a region for 1–3 months before you lock in.
If you fall in love with a €1 villa in Puglia or a cedar-scented akiya in the Japanese hills—don’t say I didn’t warn you.
The “Where Next?” Cheatsheet
If this sparked ideas, organize them into action:
Pick your “why.” (Retire? Lower taxes? Quiet base? Project house?)
Shortlist countries that fit your lifestyle + visa reality.
Match incentives (cash, tax, or housing) to your budget and timeline.
Do a two-week scouting trip in your top town.
Decide: renovate, rent, or buy turnkey and breathe.